Flávio Cunha

Research

Working papers

Empathy, Social Networks, and Academic Achievement: Experimental Evidence on Cross-Productivity in Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Yiming Xia, Naibao Zhao · NBER Working Paper 35370, June 2026

NBERBibTeX

We evaluate a parent-directed empathy development program for middle school students in China using a randomized trial with 2,246 students. The four-month mobile app intervention produced short-run gains in empathy and reduced bullying but no immediate academic effects. Over the longer term, treatment students were 3.2 percentage points more likely to enter elite high schools and 2.5 percentage points less likely to miss the entrance exam. We trace these gains to improved self-beliefs and a restructuring of classroom friendship networks that reduced academic homophily, revealing a social channel of cross-productivity: non-cognitive investments can reshape peer relationships to improve academic outcomes.

Beliefs, Attention, and Investments in Early Childhood

Flavio Cunha, Snejana Nihtianova, Jessica Rood, Anja-Lize van der Merwe · NBER Working Paper 35150, April 2026

NBERBibTeX

We develop a model of parental investment in early childhood in which bandwidth-constrained parents hold distorted beliefs about the returns to responsive interaction. When capacity falls short of aspiration, motivated reasoning provides relief: the parent distorts her working belief downward, rationalizing low engagement. Distorted beliefs suppress responsive parenting, which generates no calibration evidence, which, in turn, confirms the distortion. The model identifies four channels through which interventions escape this self-sealing trap. A randomized controlled trial confirms the model’s predictions on parental beliefs, measures of responsive parenting, behavioral engagement, and absence of impact on materials or placebo outcomes.

An Evaluation of the Alief Independent School District Jumpstart Program: Using a Model to Recover Mechanisms from an RCT

Flavio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Andrea Salvati, Kenneth Wolpin, Rui Zeng · NBER Working Paper 33537, March 2025

NBERBibTeX

This paper evaluates the Jumpstart Program (JSP), a parenting intervention implemented by a school district in the Houston area to enhance school readiness among economically disadvantaged three-year-old children. Unlike many early childhood programs typically tested in controlled research settings, JSP leverages existing school district resources for scalability and practical application. We conducted a three-year randomized controlled trial to measure the program’s impact on child cognitive outcomes, parental engagement, and mechanisms of change. The results indicate improvements in children’s performance on curriculum-aligned assessments and modest gains in general cognitive readiness as measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment. Furthermore, treatment group parents demonstrated increased reading frequency with their children, underscoring enhanced parental involvement as a crucial mechanism behind the program’s success. We employed a structural model to analyze both the direct effects of JSP and its indirect effects through changes in the marginal productivity of investments or preferences via habit formation. Our analysis concludes that 75% of the program’s impact is attributed to direct effects, while 25% is mediated through changes in habit formation in parental investments. Our research underscores the potential of scalable, real-world interventions to bridge socio-economic gaps in early childhood development and inform the design of effective educational policies.

If You Build It, They Will Come: A Demand Analysis of Household-Level Childcare Choices

Flavio Cunha, Jin Young Lee, Ritika Sethi · Texas Policy Lab Working Paper · 2024

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One Says Goodbye, Another Says Hello: Turnover and Compensation in the Early Care and Education Sector

Flavio Cunha, Marcos Lee · NBER Working Paper 31869, November 2023

NBERBibTeX

The quality of the early environment children experience influences their human capital development. We investigate retention and compensation in the Early Care and Education workforce by merging datasets from three different government agencies in Texas. We employ non-structural methods to compare turnover and pay in Early Care and Education with those in other sectors that employ similar workers. We estimate a dynamic discrete choice occupational model to quantify the labor supply and turnover elasticities in this industry. In addition, we simulate the impact of wage supplementation programs.

Reducing Bullying: Evidence from a Parental Involvement Program on Empathy Education

Flavio Cunha, Qinyou Hu, Yiming Xia, Naibao Zhao · NBER Working Paper 30827, January 2023

NBERBibTeX

According to UNESCO, one-third of the world’s youths are victims of bullying, which deteriorates academic performance and mental health, and increases suicide ideation and the risk of committing suicide. This paper analyzes a four-month parent-directed intervention designed to foster empathy in middle schoolers in China. Our implementation and evaluation study enrolled 2,246 seventh and eighth graders and their parents, whom we assigned, at the classroom level, to the control or intervention condition randomly. We measured, before and after the intervention, parental investments, children’s empathy, and self-reported bullying perpetration and victimization incidents. Our analyses show that the intervention increased investments and empathy and reduced bullying incidents. In addition, we measured costs and found that it costs $12.50 for our intervention to reduce one bullying incident. Our study offers a scalable and low-cost strategy that can inform public policy on bullying prevention in other similar settings.

Subjective Parental Beliefs: Their Measurement and Role

Orazio Attanasio, Flavio Cunha, Pamela Jervis · NBER Working Paper 26516, revised August 2024 · 2019

NBERBibTeX

We study the importance of maternal subjective beliefs about the technology of skill formation in determining parental investments in child development. We describe our framework in three steps. First, we discuss the construction of the survey instrument we used to elicit maternal subjective beliefs. Second, we show how to convert the answers to the survey instrument into estimates of maternal subjective beliefs. Finally, we correlate maternal subjective beliefs with maternal investments in child development. We apply our framework to a unique dataset collected as part of an 18-month-long parenting stimulation program in Colombia, whose target population was low-income households with children aged 12 to 24 months at baseline and lasted 18 months. In this program, home visitors paid weekly visits to randomly chosen households to improve mother-child interactions and other maternal behaviors that foster the development of children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We show that most mothers believe that the technology of skill formation follows a Cobb-Douglas parameterization, but there is significant heterogeneity in coefficients of investments across mothers. In addition, mothers hold low subjective expectations, meaning they underestimate the returns on their investments. We also find that maternal subjective beliefs predict investments but that the program did not affect maternal subjective beliefs.

Publications

Associations between urbanization and the home language environment: Evidence from a LENA study in rural and peri-urban China

Yue Ma, Xinwu Zhang, Lucy Pappas, Andrew Rule, Yujuan Gao, Sarah-Eve Dill, Tianli Feng, Yue Zhang, Hong Wang, Flavio Cunha, Scott Rozelle · Child Development, 95(2), e74–e92 · 2024

You are what your parents expect: Height and local reference points

Fan Wang, Esteban Puentes, Jere R. Behrman, Flavio Cunha · Journal of Econometrics, 243(1–2), 105269 · 2024

Language Environment and Maternal Expectations: An Evaluation of the LENA Start Program

Flavio Cunha, Marsha Gerdes, Qinyou Hu, Snejana Nihtianova · Journal of Human Capital, 18(1), 105–139 · 2024

Maternal subjective expectations about the technology of skill formation predict investments in children one year later

Flavio Cunha, Irma Elo, Jennifer Culhane · Journal of Econometrics, 231(1), 3–32 · 2022

The Econometrics of Early Childhood Human Capital and Investments

Flavio Cunha, Eric Nielsen, Benjamin Williams · Annual Review of Economics, 13(1), 487–513 · 2021

Persistence and Fade-Out of Educational-Intervention Effects: Mechanisms and Potential Solutions

Drew H. Bailey, Greg J. Duncan, Flavio Cunha, Barbara R. Foorman, David S. Yeager · Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 21(2), 55–97 · 2020

Early life height and weight production functions with endogenous energy and protein inputs

Esteban Puentes, Fan Wang, Jere R. Behrman, Flavio Cunha, John Hoddinott, John A. Maluccio, Linda S. Adair, Judith B. Borja, Reynaldo Martorell, Aryeh D. Stein · Economics & Human Biology, 22, 65–81 · 2016

Decomposing Trends in Inequality in Earnings into Forecastable and Uncertain Components

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · Journal of Labor Economics, 34(S2), S31–S65 · 2016

Subjective Rationality, Parenting Styles, and Investments in Children

Flavio Cunha · In Diverging Destinies: Families in an Era of Increasing Inequality, ch. 2, 45–55, Springer · 2014

Returns to Skills and the College Premium

Flavio Cunha, Fatih Karahan, Ilton Soares · Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(s1), 39–86 · 2011

Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Susanne M. Schennach · Econometrica, 78(3), 883–931 · 2010

Investing in our Young People

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · In Cost-Effective Early Childhood Programs in the First Decade: A Human Capital Integration, ch. 18, 381–414, Cambridge University Press · 2010

Human Capital Formation in Childhood and Adolescence

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · CESifo DICE Report, 7(4), 22–28 · 2009

Crossing the Finish Line: A Review Article

Flavio Cunha · Journal of Human Capital, 3(4), 354–378 · 2009

Early Childhood Education and its Importance in Reducing Violence

Aloisio Araujo, Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Rodrigo Moura · In Educação Básica no Brasil, ch. 5, 95–116, Elsevier (in Portuguese) · 2009

The Economics and Psychology of Inequality and Human Development

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · Journal of the European Economic Association, 7(2–3), 320–364 · 2009

Formulating, Identifying and Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · Journal of Human Resources, 43(4), 738–782 · 2008

A New Framework for the Analysis of Inequality

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(S2), 315–354 · 2008

Identifying and estimating the distributions of ex post and ex ante returns to schooling

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · Labour Economics, 14(6), 870–893 · 2007

The Identification and Economic Content of Ordered Choice Models with Stochastic Thresholds

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Salvador Navarro · International Economic Review, 48(4), 1273–1309 · 2007

The Technology of Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman · American Economic Review, 97(2), 31–47 · 2007

Interpreting the Evidence on Life Cycle Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Lance Lochner, Dimitriy V. Masterov · In Handbook of the Economics of Education, ch. 12, 697–812, North Holland · 2006

Counterfactual Analysis of Inequality and Social Mobility

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Salvador Navarro · In Mobility and Inequality: Frontiers of Research from Sociology and Economics, ch. 4, 290–346, Stanford University Press · 2006

Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings

Flavio Cunha, James J. Heckman, Salvador Navarro · Oxford Economic Papers, 57(2), 191–261 · 2005

Older working papers

Eliciting Maternal Expectations about the Technology of Cognitive Skill Formation

Flavio Cunha, Irma Elo, Jennifer Culhane · NBER Working Paper 19144, June 2013

The Production of Human Capital: Endowments, Investments and Fertility

Anna Aizer, Flavio Cunha · NBER Working Paper 18429, September 2012

Gaps in Early Investments in Children

Flavio Cunha · Working paper · 2012

Investments in Children when Markets Are Incomplete

Flavio Cunha · Working paper · 2007